Emphasizing the competitive spirit enveloping the upcoming Grammy nominations on November 16, Rolling Stone has begun a detailed analysis of 11 different categories, with an eye on predicting nominees and winners for the night’s prestigious awards. The spotlight this year is on the closely contested Record of the Year, which honors the recorded version of a song and recognizes all the contributors involved in its creation.
The nominees vying for Record of the Year will feature an intriguing blend of established artists along with promising newcomers from a variety of genres. Among the expected contenders are Ella Langley, Raye, Noah Kahan, and the versatile Rosalía. As Tony Gervino, editor-in-chief of Tidal, notes, the Grammys are making a concerted effort to appeal to a younger demographic, acknowledging the surge of fresh talent that has the potential to dominate this year’s nominations.
Record of the Year – Our Predictions
The anticipated nominees include:
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need”
Noah Kahan, “The Great Divide”
Ella Langley, “Choosin’ Texas”
Bruno Mars, “I Just Might”
Raye, “Where Is My Husband!”
Olivia Rodrigo, “The Cure”
Rosalía, feat. Björk and Yves Tumor, “Berghain”
Taylor Swift, “The Fate of Ophelia”
Who Will Win?
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need”
Predicting the winner for Record of the Year poses a challenge, particularly with Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need” in the mix. Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” has similarly made significant waves; if it takes the award, it would mark a historic moment as the first country song to win this category since Lady A’s “Need You Now” back in 2011. Langley’s track has shattered numerous records, including becoming the longest-running Number One song on the Billboard Hot 100, coinciding with a spike in the genre’s popularity in sales and streaming.
Yet, Raye shouldn’t be underestimated. As Gervino suggests, the Grammys often favor familiar faces, which could work in Raye’s favor when it comes time to announce the winner. “If I had to guess, I’d say Raye is gonna win Record of the Year,” he adds.
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With the current trajectory, many lean towards Dean grabbing the Grammy, bolstered by the nostalgic beauty and intricate craftsmanship evident in her song. This aligns perfectly with the award’s criteria, which celebrate the architects behind the music. Expect to see Dean alongside co-writer Tobias MacDonald Jesso Jr. and co-writer/producer Zach Nahome on stage if she wins.
Who Should Win?
Rosalía, “Berghain”
Her groundbreaking single from the acclaimed album Lux showcases Rosalía’s remarkable talent as she intricately melds her conservatory training with operatic vocals in both German and Spanish. The song features a robust orchestration from the London Symphony Orchestra and contributions from Björk and Yves Tumor, making it a sound unlike any other. Its genre-defying nature complicates the Grammys’ ability to categorize it easily—a challenge that Gervino points out.
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Gervino highlights, “I would like to see Rosalía win something for that album. There has to be a world where that kind of creativity and genius is rewarded.” He compares the impact of Lux to that of musical legend Robert Johnson, noting its sudden emergence and the lack of precedent—something unprecedented that defies easy categorization.
Forecasting the Field
This year, Olivia Dean and Olivia Rodrigo are expected to be frontrunners in this fiercely competitive landscape. Rodrigo’s monumental success makes “The Cure” a strong contender for a nomination. Heavyweights like Taylor Swift and Bruno Mars also have solid chances, given their historical recognition by the Grammys. Further, Noah Kahan’s album, The Great Divide, which Gervino praises as “pristine,” along with its lead single, promises to resonate due to its universal themes and relatability.
